Lower rainfall areas hardest hit; cold, wet, elevated areas may benefit
While temperature and rainfall changes by 2030 may, on average, negatively impact on pasture and thus livestock production, each area will differ, depending on where they are located. For example, CSIRO modelling suggests that lower rainfall inland areas will be hardest hit, with some currently cold, wet and elevated areas likely to actually benefit from a changing climate
The following depicts the impact on profitability in 2030,2050 and 2070, showing the variability in responses with a trend toward the lower rainfall inland areas be harder hit by future climates
For more information see Research Centres – CSIRO
By way of comparison, the following is a summary table for Orange in NSW, where even a 9% reduction in rainfall and a 12% increase in temperature led to increased pasture production and profitability. Due to Oranges’ altitude (950m) winter pasture production is the major limitation to the current production system. So the increased temperatures during the growing season results in an increased annual pasture production, similar stocking rates and profits/ha.
Compare that to a lower rainfall area such as Yarrawalla in northern Victoria (less than 400mm rainfall per year), where a 2% reduction in rainfall and a 6% increase in temperature leads to a predicted decrease in profitability of 18%
To view impacts in your area, click here to view map of all locations.