Using producers’ own production and financial data from the Cressy area, modelling was initially undertaken to assess pasture and livestock production, and enterprise profitability for the prior period 1970-1999 to ensure the models were performing correctly. Modelling was then performed looking ahead to 2030, using 4 different climate scenarios.
A sheep enterprise was examined.
Weather predictions, pasture and livestock production
Projected weather for the four 2030 scenarios and the impact on pasture production, livestock production and profitability are shown below
- Compared to 1970-1999, average results across the 4 climate scenarios in 2030:
- Average temperatures are consistently higher (average 4% higher)
- In each of the climate scenarios, rainfall was forecast to increase significantly, and averaged 27% higher.
- The predicted increase in temperature and rainfall during the growing season results in a substantial increase in annual pasture production (average 31% higher), similar stocking rates and an increase in profit per hectare (average +13%).
- While impacts predicted in 2030 were positive, some adaptations were modelled to achieve higher profitability.