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Cressy – Southern Livestock Adaptation 2030

Cressy

Using producers’ own production and financial data from the Cressy area, modelling was initially undertaken to assess pasture and livestock production, and enterprise profitability for the prior period 1970-1999 to ensure the models were performing correctly. Modelling was then performed looking ahead to 2030, using 4 different climate scenarios.

A sheep enterprise was examined.

Weather predictions, pasture and livestock production

Projected weather for the four 2030 scenarios and the impact on pasture production, livestock production and profitability are shown below

 

Key findings

  • Compared to 1970-1999, average results across the 4 climate scenarios in 2030:
    • Average temperatures are consistently higher (average 4% higher)
    • In each of the climate scenarios, rainfall was forecast to increase significantly, and averaged 27% higher.
    • The predicted increase in temperature and rainfall during the growing season results in a substantial increase in annual pasture production (average 31% higher), similar stocking rates and an increase in profit per hectare (average +13%).
    • While impacts predicted in 2030 were positive, some adaptations were modelled to achieve higher profitability.