Using producers’ own production and financial data from Flinders Island, modelling was initially undertaken to assess pasture and livestock production, and enterprise profitability for the prior period 1970-1999 to ensure the models were performing correctly. Modelling was then performed looking ahead to 2030, using 4 different climate scenarios.
A beef cattle (steers) enterprise was examined.
Weather predictions, pasture and livestock production
Projected weather for the four 2030 scenarios and the impact on pasture production, livestock production and profitability are shown below
- Compared to 1970-1999, average results across the 4 climate scenarios in 2030:
- Average temperatures pretty much the same (average 1% lower)
- In each of the climate scenarios, rainfall was forecast to increase significantly, and averaged 13% higher.
- The predicted increase in rainfall during the growing season results in a considerable increase in annual pasture production (average 13% higher), similar stocking rates and a small average increase in profit per hectare (average +3%).
- While impacts predicted in 2030 were positive, some adaptations were modelled to achieve higher profitability.